COLUMN: Higher interest rates will slow B.C. economy after ‘unusually robust’ show

COLUMN: Higher interest rates will slow B.C. economy after ‘unusually robust’ show

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC

By Jock Finlayson

When it hiked its short-term policy interest rate in late October, the Bank of Canada signaled that an extended period of “money for nothing” – the lowest interest rates in Canadian history – had finally and definitively come to an end.

Last month, the central bank lifted its benchmark overnight rate to 1.75 per cent, which is up from a record low of 0.5 per cent in the summer of 2017. Over the past 15 months, the Bank of Canada has nudged its policy rate steadily higher, albeit in baby steps. Why does this matter?

READ MORE: Bank of Canada hikes interest rate to 1.75%

The reason is that many other interest rates in our economy, including mortgages, lines of credit, and the rates paid on savings accounts and Guaranteed Investment Certificates, are influenced by the Bank of Canada’s rate-setting decisions.

So, as the central bank has been raising its benchmark rate, borrowing costs for consumers, home-buyers, businesses and governments have been rising in tandem. To a lesser extent, savers have also seen slightly higher returns on the money they hold with banks, credit unions and other financial institutions.

Based on statements from Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz and his colleagues, it appears that the bank expects to keep interest rates on an upward trajectory in 2019-20. Of course, this assumes the Canadian economy continues to post modest growth going forward.

READ MORE: Feds to release fall economic update Nov. 21

Some prominent forecasters see the bank’s benchmark policy rate approaching three per cent by mid-2020. If so, the market-determined interest rates facing households and businesses are likely to keep climbing for a few more quarters at least.

The shift from years of rock-bottom interest rates to somewhat more “normal” rates will have widespread effects across the economy. With the cost of credit escalating, consumer spending in Canada is set to slow. So too will key measures of real-estate-related activity, as rising mortgage rates take a bite of housing demand and quash speculation.

British Columbia is more vulnerable than other provinces to the tighter financial conditions being engineered by the central bank.

READ MORE: Housing slowdown forecast to cool B.C. economy

With the most expensive homes in the country, B.C. also “leads” in the amount of debt accumulated by consumers and households – both in absolute terms, and relative to household incomes.

Mortgages make up more than two-thirds of household debt. Thus, costlier real estate means bigger mortgages and a higher debt/income ratio for the average B.C. household.

Estimates suggest that 70 per cent of Canadian households with five-year fixed mortgages as of 2017 will have renewed at a higher rate by the end of 2020. Around one-fifth of these households are in B.C. People with variable rate mortgages will also be paying more in interest costs going forward.

What do higher interest rates portend for the province’s economy as a whole?

First, like Canada, B.C. will see a downshifting in the growth of consumer spending – a trend that is already evident in the data on retail sales in 2018.

Second, housing markets, which have softened in 2018, should stay subdued for some time, as mortgage rates edge up and more restrictive federal government rules on mortgage financing continue to weigh on lending. The NDP government’s measures to curb housing demand and increase the tax burden on expensive properties are also playing a role in taking the froth out of the real estate sector.

Overall growth in the B.C. economy is poised to slow after the unusually robust performance seen in 2016 and 2017.

For 2018, the Business Council of B.C. projects a 2.3 per cent increase in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, down from average growth of 3.8 per cent over the previous two years.

In 2019, we anticipate a small pick-up in economic activity, fueled in large part by higher investment spending – specifically, the start-up of LNG Canada’s massive gas liquefaction project in Kitimat, by the middle of next year.

READ MORE: Kitimat gets first look at LNG Canada timeline

Looking ahead, it is clear that B.C. will have to rely more on non-residential investment and exports to underpin an expanding economy, as the province moves away from the real estate-centric growth model that prevailed during the era of record low interest rates.

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of British Columbia

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Just Posted

JAK's Liquor Store in Penticton will be donating 10 per cent of its sales on Saturday, June 19, to the Penticton Salvation Army Food Bank. (Photo from JAKS.com)
Stock up your liquor cabinet and support the Penticton food bank

Jak’s beer and wine store is donating a portion of sales to local food banks Saturday

A tent housing a mobile vaccination clinic. (Interior Health/Contributed)
Over 5K jabbed at Interior Health mobile COVID-19 vaccine clinics

The clinics have made stops in more than 40 communities since launching last week

The illegal open fire above Naramata continues to smoke on Friday, June 18. The fire was left to burn itself out by BC Wildfire. (Monique Tamminga - Western News)
Illegal open burn in Naramata will be left to smoke

BC Wildfire could not confirm whether the property owner had been fined

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry talks about B.C.’s plan to restart the province during a press conference at Legislature in Victoria, Tuesday, May 25, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
Interior Health COVID-19 cases falling slower than the rest of B.C.

More than a third of provincial cases announced Thursday came from the Interior

Keremeos’ heritage Grist Mill and Gardens. (Brennan Phillips - Keremeos Review)
Keremeos Grist Mill looking forward to restrictions easing with exclusive concert planned

Juno Award-winning folk artist Valdy is set to take the stage

A small pod of Pacific white-sided dolphins pass by close to shore in Campbell River June 16, 2021. Still capture from video courtesy of Kimberly Hart
VIDEO: Dolphin sunset captured from Vancouver Island shore

Spectacular setting for view of travelling pod of Pacific white-sided dolphins

Earls On Top at 211 Bernard Avenue in Kelowna. (Google Maps photo)
Downtown Kelowna’s Earls ordered closed after COVID-19 transmission

Earls on Top on Bernard Avenue will be closed from June 18 to June 27

A motorycle crash has been reported on Westside Road. (Google Maps)
UPDATE: Westside Road reopened following motorcycle crash near Vernon

AIM Roads advises drivers to expect delays due to congestion

(File photo)
Penticton not holding Canada Day activities out of respect for Indigenous people

Cities across B.C. are cancelling the holiday after an increased spotlight on Canada’s dark history

Dereck Donald Sears. (Contributed/Crimestoppers)
Murder charge laid in relation to suspicious Kelowna death

Dereck Donald Sears is charged with second-degree murder in the death of Darren Middleton

Police are asking for public assistance in locating Anthony Graham who has been charged with the murders of Kamloops brothers Carlo and Erick Fryer. (RCMP photo)
2 charged, suspect at large in killings of B.C. brothers linked to gang activity: RCMP

Kamloops brothers Erick and Carlo Fryer were found deceased in May on a remote Okanagan road

Albert Health Minister Tyler Shandro and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney unveil an opening sign after speaking about the Open for Summer Plan and next steps in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, in Edmonton, Friday, June 18, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
Alberta 1st province in Canada to lift all COVID-19 public health restrictions

70.2% of eligible citizens 12 and older in the province have received a dose of the vaccine

Fraser Health registered nurse Ramn Manan draws a dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine into a syringe at a walk-up vaccination clinic at Bear Creek Park, in Surrey, B.C., on Monday, May 17, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
‘Honour our fathers’ with COVID-19 vaccine protection, B.C. urges

109 new cases Friday, 75 per cent of 12 and up immunized

Most Read