Long range forecasts for winter weather arrived on the heels of a change in the weather in the Similkameen after a lengthy period of sunny, warm weather.
Prognosticators are indicating that “odds now favor that the ENSO will have little impact on the winter weather in Canada this season as it hovers near-neutral, perhaps very weak El Nino,” according to Accuweather. In addition, they are saying:
“The changing Pacific North American, North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations throughout the season will play a major role in the winter weather pattern as they usually do, but there is really no forecast skill in predicting the phases of those oscillations this far out (months).
However, we can look at longer-term trends of these oscillations which may give us some clues to what the dominant phase may be this winter. Low sea ice in the Arctic and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures could also impact the Arctic Oscillation.
Last winter, the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations remained in the high, positive range for an unusually long time. This overwhelmed any impact from La Nina and kept the Arctic air trapped in the far north while mild; Pacific air overwhelmed the country much of the season.
The odds of this happening again this winter seem low based on what we have been looking at.
More lacally, the long term forecast is calling for a drier winter for most of B.C.
The winter as a whole should be much colder compared to last winter (record warmth) across the Prairies, but still averaging near to slightly colder than normal overall. Latest computer model trends over the past month have been going in the colder direction across this region.
Th ski season is expected to get off to good start in the west.