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April snow survey indicates high runoff this spring in the Similkameen

Weather conditions favourable for snowpack transition from accumulation to melt in the Similkameen watershed

 

The April 1 snow survey data from the BC Rivers Forecast Centre  indcated a snowpack in the Similkameen of 124 per cent of normal.

This represents the highest snowpack in five years for the Similkameen valley. Predictions for the runoff rate from April through June is expected to be 115 per cent of normal, indicating the possibility for increased risk of flooding this spring.

Seasonal weather during the snow melt season is a critical factor in determining whether or not flooding will occur. The Rivers Forecast Centre advises that adverse weather, including extreme heat or extreme precipitation, can cause flooding in years with normal, or even below normal snow packs.

The Climate Prediction Centre at the U.S. National Weather Service/NOAA is currently forecasting approximately a 50 per cent chance of the emergence of El Niño conditions into the summer. El Niño years typically have increased winter temperatures and decreased winter precipitation, and while this may not play a role in terms of 2014 summer weather, it may become a factor for the 2014-15 snow season.

Seasonal forecasts from Environment Canada indicate an increased chance of above normal temperatures for the April to June 2014 period through most of British Columbia, including the Similkameen valley. Forecasts for seasonal precipitation do not indicate an increased likelihood of any particular precipitation trend through the spring.

The extended forecast for April is calling for above normal temperatures through the middle of the month, suggesting that the seasonal transition to snow pack melt will likely occur over the next couple of weeks.